What does an increased share of products with low import content mean for inflation?

Discussion

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What does an increased share of products with low import content mean for inflation?

Discussion

Published: 1 July 2024

In this commentary, I compare two indices that I have constructed based on the relative import content of the components in the CPIF. One for product categories with a low import content and one for categories with a high import content. The two indices exhibit different effects on inflation in terms of timing of turning points. The rate of price increase in product categories with a low import content has over the past three inflation cycles remained at a high level for longer than the rate of price increase in products with a high import content. This indicates a low volatility and a lower volatility compared to the product categories with a high import content. This is probably due to sticky labour costs representing a much larger share of business costs in product categories with a low import content than in categories with a high import content and as competition can be assumed to be stronger for companies selling products with a higher import content. Forecasts may need to take more account of varying degrees of stickiness and lags in these components of inflation.