A common way of describing the matching efficiency is to use the Beveridge curve, which relates the unemployment rate to the vacancy rate (see Figure 1).^[5] Vacancies are job openings that are unstaffed and can be filled immediately. The vacancy rate is the number of vacancies in relation to the number of persons in the labour force. Normally, there is a negative correlation between vacancies and unemployment. In an economic boom, the vacancy rate rises and unemployment falls, while, in a recession, the vacancy rate falls and unemployment rises. A movement along the Beveridge curve is usually interpreted as the result of cyclical variations, while an outward (inward) shift may indicate that the matching efficiency has deteriorated (improved). However, a shift may also be part of a cyclical development in which the Beveridge curve forms an outward or inward loop but then returns to the old relationship. How quickly it returns depends on the persistence (hysteresis) of the change in unemployment after a crisis. When there is strong hysteresis, it takes longer for matching efficiency to return to pre-crisis levels.

In Sweden, two clear outward shifts can be seen in the Beveridge curve, one in 2009 after the financial crisis and one in connection with the 2020 pandemic (see Figure 1).^[6] The Beveridge curve shows similar movements if data from the Swedish Public Employment Service are used instead of data from Statistics Sweden. Since 2022, the Beveridge curve has moved inwards again, almost returning to the relationship seen before the pandemic.^[7] However, developments after the first quarter of 2024 should be interpreted with caution as Statistics Sweden’s statistics on job openings and vacancies have been discontinued and vacancies for the second and third quarters of 2024 have been projected here using the trend for the Swedish Public Employment Service’s newly registered job vacancies, which has historically had a strong correlation with Statistics Sweden’s vacancies.

Figure 1. Beveridge curve 2001–2024