Summary

In this Economic Commentary, we analyse how labour market matching in Sweden has changed since the early 2000s according to various indicators and estimates.^[1] Economic Commentaries are brief analyses of issues with relevance for the Riksbank. They may be written by individual members of the Executive Board or by employees at the Riksbank. Employees' commentaries are approved by their head of department, while Executive Board members are themselves responsible for the content of the commentaries they write. The opinions expressed in Economic Commentaries are those of the authors and are not to be seen as the Riksbank's view. How efficiently unemployed persons and job vacancies are matched affects equilibrium unemployment and thus the assessment of how much spare capacity there is in the economy. Resource utilisation, in turn, affects wage pressures and inflation and is therefore important for monetary policy.

The results of the analysis show that matching efficiency initially deteriorated in the wake of the financial crisis and then again in conjunction with the pandemic. While it is common for matching efficiency to deteriorate in crises, there is a link between the failure to recover after crises and changes in the composition of the unemployed. Since the mid-2000s, there has been a relatively large increase in the number of foreign-born persons due to a large influx of refugees and their family members. On average, it takes a long time for these groups to become established in the Swedish labour market, which affects the overall matching efficiency. In recent years, matching efficiency has recovered somewhat, reflected in an increase in job opportunities for foreign-born persons. However, matching efficiency is still worse than it was before the financial crisis and unemployment among foreign-born persons remains at a high level.

Published: 13 January 2025